Archive Listing October 31, 2008 - October 24, 2008
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. One thing that's really missing from our national
political dialogue is serious contemplation of the future. That's
because both major parties are locked into their own discrete time
zones. The Democrats occupy a fantasy time past that could be called
"What shouldn't have been allowed to happen," in which they rail about
irrevocable decisions they would have made differently, thus preventing
the unacceptable present. The Republicans confine themselves to the
crisis-driven time present of "What can't be allowed to happen," in
which their view of the future is blocked by one or two possible
outcomes so terrible they believe everyone must dread them as
fearfully as they do. The mainstream media straddle these two zones,
creating an unreal superposition of past and present which projects the
impossible proposition that the only way forward is to somehow repeal
the recent past and initiate a do-over. Life as a video game with a
reset option.
But there is no reset option. Regardless of our preferences, the future
will unfold before us, good and bad, and it is not entirely unknowable.
The propensities of key players are far from mysterious. All we have to
do is recognize those propensities and consider how they will probably
play out. Here's an example of that process.
1. Bush has won his last major battle in office. The war will continue
and the Democrats will shift their focus to electoral victory in 2008
rather than American defeat in Iraq. In all other respects, the
administration is too paralyzed and impotent to undertake serious
action against Iran or the terrorist regimes in Syria and the
Palestinian territories.
2. The Democrats will nominate Hillary Clinton. She's the supreme
symbol of the fantasy past they long for -- that very brief moment in
history after the Cold War and before 9/11, when America could hold the
world at bay with vaguely worded treaties and concern itself with
domestic prosperity and feel-good social policy gestures. Further, they
have fierce, irrational faith in her ability to punish Republicans for
the brutal termination of what they simply cannot see as a mere
intermission in the incredibly costly and nasty interactions between
America and the rest of the world.
3. The Republicans will nominate Rudy Giuliani because they simply must have a warrior candidate --
first, to have any kind of chance against the incredibly unscrupulous
and dirty campaign Hillary will run against any Republican, and second,
to stop the unthinkable from happening if he should somehow be elected
president. Romney doesn't have the cold-blooded aggression to pull the
trigger on enemies foreign or domestic. Thompson is just too
comfortable to rouse himself for any kind of fight. So Giuliani will
get the nod, the religious right will remain true to their own rigid
fantasy of turning back the clock, and they will stay home on election
day.
4. Hillary will win the presidency. She will campaign on a platform of
domestic giveaway programs, international negotiation to restore
American popularity in the world, and doing all the right and necessary
things to head off the catastrophe of global warming. Giuliani will try
to make voters care about the need to defeat Islamic fascism, and he
will promise to give away money too, though less than Hillary. But the
voters are tired of Islamic fascism and wish it would just go away.
They also think it's better to get more stuff for free rather than less
stuff. And since Hillary won't be able to give them the maximum stuff
without a veto-proof Congress, they will give her that, too. It's time
for a change.
5. Hillary will give a great inauguration speech that will remind
everyone of FDR's New Deal. During her honeymoon period she will
finally pass legislation taxing the evil rich enough and use the money
to pay for a new national health care program. Congress will take the lead in repealing the Patriot Act and passing new laws extending constitutional protections to illegal immigrants and foreign nationals. The Guantanamo facility will be shut down, its prisoners set free or remanded to civilian courts for due process. As Commander-in-Chief, Clinton will take a
wait-and-see approach in Iraq, while senior officers resign in droves
from the U.S. military, and re-enlistments plummet in every branch of
service. Troop drawdowns will therefore become absolutely necessary,
regardless of the military situation in Iraq, and the Clinton
administration will respond by launching ambitious negotiations with
Iran, Saudi Arabia and Syria to obtain a pan-Arabian treaty securing
stability in Iraq. As one of the necessary terms of the treaty, the
administration will coerce the exhausted Israelis into accepting the
final steps of partitioning Jerusalem, granting the "right-of-return"
to exiled Palestinians, and recognizing Hamas as the rightful
government of the Palestinian state.
6. When the troops begin to come home from Iraq, sectarian violence will
increase dramatically as Syrian and Iranian reinforcements rearm al
Qaeda and insurgent militias. The military will be embarrassed by
humiliating and bloody tactical blunders, as well as emerging scandals
of corruption, malfeasance, and civilian atrocities. Military morale
will reach an all-time low. Congress will launch investigations of
senior military officers. Assad and Ahdumjihad will deny involvement in
the renewed Iraqi violence, although they will eventually be compelled
to send in peacekeeping troops to "support" the failing Iraqi
government. All-out civil war will ensue.
7. Belatedly, the European nations will express concern about the
dramatic increase in Iran's nuclear program, and they will put up a
fairly united front in objecting to Vladimir Putin's overt technical
and military aid to Iran. The Cinton administration will conduct
multi-lateral negotiations with Putin to obtain a treaty securing their
cooperation in stabilizing the middle east, part of which will involve
decommitting the U.S. to missile defense. At some point, while all this
negotiating is going on, the Musharaff government will be overthrown,
and Pakistan will fall into civil war. The administration will ask the
U.N. for assistance in ending the violence, resulting in endless talks,
and U.S. troops will be transferred from Iraq to Afghanistan in a show
of force designed to deter extremists from exporting or otherwise
exploiting Pakistan's unprotected nuclear arsenal.
8. In the dwindling period before Palestinians begin returning to
Israel, Ahdumjihad will launch a surprise nuclear strike on Israel
which will be only partially successful. Over a million Israelis will
die outright, and another million will be poisoned or sickened with
radiation. The partially successful Israeli counterattack will likewise
kill a million Iranians and stop the flow of Iranian oil to the west.
The Clinton administration will threaten the use of American military
power to prevent Syria from invading crippled Israel. American aid will
flow to Israel and Iran, and elsewhere in the world, nations will send
aid to Iran. The U.N. will meet to condemn the actions of both Israel
and Iran in using nuclear weapons.
9. Vladimir Putin will dramatically raise the price of Russian oil
while the middle east writhes in chaos and Islamists worldwide launch
terrorist attacks on targets of opportunity, including Iraqi and Saudi
oilfields. This will catalyze a worldwide recession that causes
governments to fall in Europe in favor of political coalitions seeking
to placate Russia by breaking their alliances with the U.S. The sudden
economic downturn in China will also convince that government to secure
its own oil supply by forming an overt alliance with Putin's Russia and
providing military "aid," including troops, to Pakistan and Iran.
10. To protect Americans and prevent a wider war, the Clinton
administration will recall the U.S. Navy to guard the American coasts.
As rumors of missing and stolen nukes proliferate, President Clinton
will also declare a policy of immediate nuclear retaliation against the
country of origin in the event of any terrorist nuclear attack on the
U.S. The planned emergency evacuation of surviving Israelis will,
regrettably but unavoidably, be cancelled. American academics will be
jubilant about the sudden end of "the American empire." The New York
Times, the Washington Post, Time, Newsweek, and all the television news
networks will produce multi-part series explaining why and how all
these events are George W. Bush's fault. After many congressional
investigations and a televised criminal trial, he will be sentenced to
a federal SuperMax prison for life. Dan Rather will pull his comfy old
sweater out of mothballs and return to the anchor chair at CBS News. At
the end of his first newscast, he will utter his old valedictory,
"Courage."
How do you like the future so far? No wonder none of our leaders wants
to talk about anything but the past and the present.




.
Can you believe it? The photo above records the first ever meeting
between Glenn
Reynolds and Ann
Althouse. It happened yesterday in New York. Yesterday. Mark the date on your
calendars. In blogger terms, this is the equivalent of an 8.9 on the
Richter Scale.
A friendly word of warning to Glenn, though. Be careful, Big Guy. That
Ann's a real siren. The way you two carry on electronically already
reminds us of another legendary couple:
Just keep things virtual, if you know what we mean.


. Yesterday, Michelle
Malkin noted the 50th anniversary of the
publication of Atlas Shrugged,
the extraordinary paean to capitalism written by Ayn Rand. She also
revealed the incredible fact that Angelina Jolie has been signed to
star in a movie version of the book. If you haven't read the book, you
can't know just how
incredible this circumstance is. The folks at IMDB.com confirm that the
project is in some stage of development, and they include a plot
synopsis. Here's an excerpt:
I'll tell you right now the eventual shooting script will bear little
relation to this synopsis and even less to the unmistakeable
intentions of Ayn Rand. (Check out the message boards already starting
up at IMDB.com) There is simply no way the book Rand wrote can
be transformed faithfully into a movie by left-wing Hollywood, whose
loudmouth political activists are living caricatures of the philosophy
Rand was attacking in every word of Atlas
Shrugged. Her loathing of the socialist egalitarianism best
exemplified by Berkeley and Hollywood leftists was utter, devoid of any
shade of nuance. She didn't believe in income redistribution or a
social safety net of any sort. Her ideal was a pure meritocracy in
which absolutely unfettered capitalism rewards those who work,
innovate, and take risks in the market. Not much is said about those
who are incapable of work or unwilling to work. Presumably, they will
learn when their straits become dire enough.
The book is also unabashedly pro-American. One of the characters in Atlas Shrugged delivers a five- or
ten-page speech celebrating the fact that the United States is the only
nation in history to employ its own initials ('U" superimposed on 'S')
as the symbol of its currency, thus demonstrating the cardinal value of
the nation (regardless of any cracker-barrel platitudes we may repeat
as a pretense of altruism.) God, for example, is conspicuously absent
from Atlas Shrugged; Rand was
an atheist, which along with her ruggedly individualistic feminism, was
all she had in common with the 'progressive' community in which this
movie will be made. Nor is the atheism incidental. Rand was a product
of the Soviet system, a supreme rationalist who created her philosophy
in direct opposition to the equally atheistic rationalism of Marxism.
Time and again she assaults the concept of "the greatest good for the
greatest number," arguing that personal sacrifice is actually immoral
and, correctly, that most of what we think of as sacrifice is not. The
mother who goes hungry in order that her child may eat is not
sacrificing anything. She is simply choosing an alternative she values
more highly than her own physical well being. But the more abstract and
remote from the individual such choices become, the less legitimate
they become. At the extreme, the requirement to sacrifice personal well
being in deference to the needs (or demands) of an entire populace
amounts to annihilation of the individual self.
Rand's writings are as extreme -- and as unrealistically
black-and-white -- as the rationalist totalitarian system her personal
experience inspired her to oppose. That's why her books have always
been most prized by those who read them very young. (I note that
Michelle read Atlas Shrugged
in high school, at about the same age I did.) Her sensationally radical
opposition to a lot of unexamined social pieties provides a clarity
that enables young minds to see a bigger picture they never knew was
there. For most, the result is a kind of intellectual breakthrough
which leads through time to a better educated and usually more
temperate view of the ideal social contract; for example, one in which
an individual may feel some responsibility for the well being of people
he doesn't know personally, or in which a soldier may give up his life
for his country without its being an immoral sacrifice.
But the residual Rand effect is still dangerous to leftist orthodoxy --
a core belief in the power and worth of the individual, on whose best
achievements the success of whole nations and societies depend. No
organization, no committee, no plurality of mediocrities can serve as a
substitute for outstanding individual achievement. And if the
incentives for the best and brightest among us are taken away, or too
seriously diminished, the entire culture will crumble.
This is the irreducible nut at the center of Atlas Shrugged, and it's one
Hollywood just won't be able to swallow. The story will have to be
changed. The script will be rewritten endlessly until a way is found to
spit out the nut. It will go through drafts as a Bush-bashing allegory,
an anti-war parable (business is war by other means, right?), an
allusive prefiguring of the worldwide economic crisis wrought by Global
Warming, a melodrama symbolic of feminist battles against the
patriarchy, a shallow screed against corrupt (Republican?)
politicians, a complete reversal in which the disappearing industrialists are portrayed as villains for abandoning the parasitic sheep who feed off their talent... and, in fact, anything and everything BUT what Ayn Rand
was saying on every page of her 1000+ page book. The most unlikely
miracle of all is that a movie will ever be released in theaters.
You can take that to the bank.
I don't mean to be a wet blanket to all you Rand fans. I'm just trying
to be realistic.
P.S. The
sound file contains excerpts from the music I listened to
continuously while I was reading Atlas
Shrugged when I was fourteen. Don't ask me
why. It just seemed to fit.