Instapun*** Archive Listing

Archive Listing
October 21, 2012 - October 14, 2012

Friday, October 19, 2012

Debate 2.X

He was so relaxed he looked like he was having fun.

  Momentum? Try this. Romney killed at the Al Smith Dinner last night. As Drudge put it, Romney roasted Obama, and Obama roasted himself. The stiff, wooden, remote multi-millionaire had deft comic timing and grace at the end. Funny. In a celebrity laden event, Romney looked good, sounded smooth, charming and debonair, loaded with zingers without being nasty, and Obama looked, well, defeated. In New Yawk Citeee, no less.

Obama was there too.

Awww. He's still not over that first debate, is he?

Round 2.X to the Mormon. Sorry, DRV. No poll data or electoral college math to tantalize you with. Just a look at who is winning and who is losing.

Thursday, October 18, 2012

The Thrilla in Boca

The rubber match. Unless you figure in the champ has lost the first two of three.

ANOTHER DEBATE (YAWN). Yes, people will be watching in huge numbers. The prizefight analogy only works so far, though. The better one is chess. Romney's apparent slip-up in the face of Candy Crowley's misguided intervention amounts to the perfect setup for, uh, Checkmate.

Thanks to the ensuing controversy, the third and final debate will come to be known as the Benghazi Debate. No way Romney won't know the entire timeline backwards and forwards and upside down if need be. (What no MSM outlet has ever mentioned to my knowledge is that Obama ain't the only Harvard Law School graduate on stage. This supposed Mormon buffoon is actually a graduate of the combined Harvard Law/Harvard Business School program. News to anyone?) Worse for Obama, Romney doesn't even have to be good. All he he has to do is say "Come again, Mr. President. I don't get it. If you didn't know, why didn't you? If you did, why the false video story? For two weeks and in front of the U.N. (six times) no less..." The former is a proof of incompetence in the CIC. The latter is a proof of lying, cover-up, and corruption.

Chances are, Romney will be better than that. Obama can sneer and laugh and roll his eyes Biden-style all he wants. At the end, he will be exposed to all but his hard lefty base as a fool or worse.

The Hillary part of the story is also checkmate. She did order beefed up security in Benghazi. But somebody overruled the Secretary of State on that. Who could that be? Further, the organization chart is equally dire for the president. As U.N. ambassador, Susan Rice is a cabinet level official who reports directly to the president. Who told her to tell the lie about the anti-muslim video on five TV shows in one day?

So maybe it won't be akin to the Thrilla in Manila. It might be closer to the first-round knockout in Lewiston, Maine.

Or, if you prefer, two dorks battling for supremacy:

But what do I know? I'm thinking this election has been done for quite a while now.

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

A Spanking

Don't act all horrified. Sometimes it's necessary.

. So we have another spoiled brat who doesn't know how to behave toward her elders. F.A., aka Fine Artist, had this boorish comment to make in response to one of the real ladies who visit Instapunk:

F.A. 2012-10-15 02:49:00


Your commentators make me feel ashamed to live in this country. In regards to Paul Ryan, "He is an extremely masculine male but at the same time appears sweetly unaware of the power of his maleness -- both in intellect and physicality."

Barbara are you working on your next romance novel in which the unfit baby boomer lady gets raped by the ups man and in the end feels both pleasure and anger about the experience? What the fuck are you talking about lady?

Well Hello! Here is a clarion call to all you boomers out there both on the left side and on the right side: Paul Ryan and Joe Biden are working together. Yes, it is true, no matter how much you want to believe there are two sides to this political circus we call Democrats and Republicans there is only one team. The team is called money and it is paid by the corporations which pay both sides of the aisle equally, for example, Joe Biden is getting paid as much money from Monsanto and GE as Paul Ryan.

Let me give you another example because you people seem to really be left in the dark. Did you notice during the Vice Presidential debate that there was reference to Afghanistan War. Joe Biden says "we are getting out!" Paul Ryan says "we don't want to lose the gains we have already made!" Neither states the truth of why we are there, which is to still [sic] the Lithium that was discovered there as the Iraq War of stealing oil was coming to a close. After stealing the oil from Iraq we turned to Afghanistan to steal the Lithium. You people all want to just have fun in the theater of politics to such an extreme degree you over look the most obvious fact, which is we now live in a Plutocracy.

As long as the Democrats and Republicans are paid off by the same people and just keep pretending to be on opposite sides you are okay with watching the side show and pretending like it is the greatest show on Earth with the greatest nation on Earth, America. Well when the economy collapses again and the majority of the people are in dire straits, I will remember how all of these politicians lied to the people and how the people, like Barbara, went along with the absurdity. People like Barbara, I believe will be repaid by the universe ten fold, their ignorance, blindness and constant self congratulations will be remembered and the universe will dull [sic] out their punishment fairly, just like it always does.

Sigh. More in sorrow than in anger, blah blah, it's time somebody told you some things about yourself, FA. You're rude and you're an idiot. Not a graceful combination. I dare say absolutely nobody cares whether you're ashamed to live in this country or not. You clearly know nothing whatever about your country. Why should anyone take your sense of shame seriously when you have no shame about attacking a woman who has done you no harm whatsoever? That's what you should be ashamed about, not affairs of state you've invented from a worldview consisting of sixth grade social studies textbooks and conspiracy theories touted by nihilist agitators. What a sorry little waste of time you are.

I'd be ashamed of dignifying your incoherent tirade with my own words except that you insulted Barbara. She's a lady. You don't know the meaning of the word, as you don't with many words. Barbara is literate. You are anything but. You're so dense and dim that you can't even see every pejorative you apply to Barbara and others applies expressly to you more than those you're attacking. "In the dark?" That would be you. If we had stolen Iraq oil, Americans wouldn't be paying double for gas what they paid four years ago. Lithium? Really? Put down the crack pipe, babe. You're a lunatic.

"When the economy collapses again..." Again? We're still in the middle of the biggest economic collapse since the 1930s. You don't even remember when it wasn't this way. The current political battle is about undoing this left-wing engineered aberration. Fool. Meaning you.

"Repaid by the universe ten fold, their ignorance, blindness and constant self congratulations will be remembered and the universe will dull [sic] out their punishment fairly"? That would be you, in all your miserable, uneducated glory. It's not going to get better for you as you pursue your bitter course through life. Paranoia and blind ignorance will keep you in the box that makes life seem like such a hell. For you it will be hell. Wake up or shut up. I don't care which you do.

"Paul Ryan and Joe Biden are working together."  uh, no they aren't. My final point, meant to be instructive and helpful, which is more than you deserve. People who believe everybody is lying, corrupt, and venal are people whose own first instincts are in that direction. The inability to imagine virtue is the sign of those who are incapable of virtue themselves. You're a pathetic, sad little waif, marooned without hope in the greatest nation in history. What a joke.

"Went along with the absurdity..." because you have no basis for understanding what absurdity is. You've never studied economics, history, religion, philosophy, mathematics, literature, or (I know this will hurt) art. You're a blank slate, FA, a shrieking little shrew who exposes her own manifold weaknesses with every word she writes. That you cannot see this is the ultimate absurdity.

Here endeth the spanking. Now go to your room and don't come out till you're ready to behave respectfully to your elders. And your superiors. Especially the latter. Because in the course of your life, most people will be. Your superiors.

P.S. Helk. Don't defend her. She had no call to do what she did and you know it.

P.P.S. Perfectly illustrative comment, Helk. News flash. Lee Harvey Oswald killed Kennedy. But only somebody who has read dozens of books and watched dozens of documentaries would know that. Others take their truths from comedians. Second news flash. The U.S. did land on the moon. A few times. If we could only find somebody to blame for that... Oh, RIGHT! Republicans.

ADDENDUM. Still refusing to apologize, Helk (who is FA for all I know and now suspect) posted a predictably raucous rock video featuring heavy metal types blasting milk cartons. That's supposed to do what? Feed some latent explode their breasts fantasy? Count me out.

It hasn't always been the case that even pop music thought it was okay to treat ladies like prostitutes or serial killer throwaways. Exhibit A:

There was romance. For FA there's only been screwing. It shows.

Wasn't that a better time? Raise your hands, all you who prefer to treat ALL women like slags.

Monday, October 15, 2012

Voting (Not) Present

MORE POLL AGITATION. Everybody's obsessing about the "Undecideds." Arguing about polls and the reciprocal effect of current polls on public opinion and future polls. Debating about the impact of debates on Undecideds, turnout of the base, and, what else, polls. I have an entirely different election analysis to offer. The political columns and websites are filled to bursting with advice to both sides on how to win the crucial remaining debates. I think all such advice is worthless and irrelevant. In fact, I think everybody is barking up the wrong tree.

If I'm right, the election is already decided and it doesn't matter what happens in the remaining debates or what the Undecideds tell pollsters they've decided in the next three weeks.

How can I say such things? My evidence is all anecdotal, but see how persuasive it is after you've heard it.

Everything in this election comes down to the definition of "likely voter." This is where the demographic makeup of the Obama constituency will prove decisive. The president needs 95 percent of his 2008 base to vote for him again to win a majority of the popular vote. (I'll get to the electoral vote later.) None of the polls shows him reaching even 50 percent, let alone 53 percent. In other words, the most optimistic reading of the polls has him at 90 percent of his 2008 base. Historically, most Undecideds break for the challenger over the incumbent. But even if he pulls off the unprecedented and Romney wins less than half the undecided vote, Obama's still in mortal trouble. Why?

The whole debate exercise is aimed at people who watch debates and try to keep current with the issues. 70 million watched part of the first debate. Which means approximately 130 million potential voters did not watch any part of the debate. 50 million watched part of the VP debate, reported as a huge triumph (probably erroneously) by Obama supporters, which means how many didn't watch it at all? 150 million voting age adults?

I can hear the objections from the peanut gallery already. Even the ones who didn't watch it heard about it at the water cooler next day. Persuasion by osmosis. Nonsense. Does anybody watch the tongue-in-cheek man-in-the-street interviews conducted by TV and radio talk show hosts? Their interviewees don't know, typically, the name of the Vice President of the United States. They're not paying attention now. They don't talk about politics at the water cooler. They talk about their own lives, TV shows, celebrities, and sports, celebrities, and sports.

Amazingly in 2008, the Obama campaign galvanized a lot of these people into voting because he transformed a political campaign into a celebrity happening they surged to be a part of. The success of the 2008 campaign in this regard is documented strikingly by the fact that no Democrat candidate for president since 1976 (the post-Watergate election) has achieved more than 50 percent of the vote. Even Clinton fell well short of 50 percent while winning election twice.

The bulge in voters we saw in 2008 came principally from four distinct demographics: black people, young people, the affluent upper middle class, and the economically frightened. All four of these have less incentive to vote for Obama this time, regardless of how they respond to pollsters. A significant percentage of them are not going to vote at all, regardless of how fervently they say they will.

Black people have taken it on the chin in the Obama administration. They may have thought a black president would improve their lot. It hasn't. Their unemployment rate has soared to 14 percent. How would you regard the current election from their perspective? Maybe, obviously, that it doesn't matter who's in office. We're still screwed. The system doesn't work. I would run out to vote again this year WHY? If you're hanging on by a thread in a disastrous economy, you're probably not parsing the economic arguments made by either side at this point. You may still be for Obama just because, but enought to go record a positive vote for an utterly broken system? Who'd be the fool here? Can you get 90 percent of that 2008 vote?

Young people don't vote much. Last time they did. The ones who carried the flag into presidential combat in 2008 are now approximately 50 percent unemployed in their post-collegiate careers. Do they feel perhaps cheated, even if they're too ignorant to know that Obama threw their whole generation under the bus by requiring them to buy health insurance their youthful sense of invincibility assures them they don't need or want? To subsidize all those older folks they thought they could transcend with their spotless idealism? Can you get 90 percent of that vote?

The affluent upper middle class were the biggest fools of all and, worse, they know it, no matter how stubbornly they argue to the contrary in person. They, old-fashioned liberals and more than a few conservatives both, registered a feelgood vote for America's first black president. "See how race-blind and committed to the diverse society of the future I am?" When all they were was blind. They know, all of them, that Obama has been an utter failure as a president and they cannot admit even to themselves, let alone a pollster, that their uncritical support for Obama was itself a form of racism. They used a different standard for a black candidate than they'd have used for a white candidate. They overpraised him. They turned off their well educated minds in favor of a catastrophically ill-conceived emotion. Can you get 90 percent of that 2008 vote?

The economically frightened are even more frightened today. They placed a huge bet on someone new and the bet was a loser. They don't care about statistics. They care about accumulation. They have four more years of lost jobs, friends and relatives with lost jobs, lost houses, lost hopes, and continuously declining prospects for a day of renewed prosperity. Can you get 90 percent of that 2008 vote?

Laura Ingraham is asking right now on her show if I believe the polls. Yes, I believe the polls. What I disbelieve is that the Obama base is going to be moved to sally out on election day and perform a positive act on behalf of the Obama candidacy. They're going to continue protesting their undying support for Obama, and then they're going to vote Not Present. It's called abstaining. What you do, especially if you can do it in secret, when you no longer believe that your vote is going to do anything but make things worse. It's throwing up your hands and saying, whatever happens, I'm not the one at fault here. Odds are, for example, the Undecideds who don't break for Romney will mostly stay home. There will be lots of staying home this year.

Any evidence of that? Sure. Obama's crowds are so small these days, the MSM is forced to lie about how big they are. Meanwhile Romney crowds are swelling day by day in places like Ohio he's supposedly losing.

Closer to home, I've already mentioned our neighbors down at the corner. During the 2008 campaign, they were Democrat Central, a married couple who were definitely into it. As the primaries wore on, they had yard signs for both Obama and Hillary, and as local elections neared their lawn filled with signs for every freeholder, sheriff and surrogate candidate who was, naturally, a Democrat. This year, the local candidate signs appeared overnight over the weekend, but their yard contains not a single political message but an American flag. Between me and my wife, our near 500 miles a week of automotive travel in two true-blue states have counted up exactly one Obama bumper sticker.

In the increasingly economically distressed locus of our hometown, I have seen a sad, symbolic transition over the past four years. The road we drive into town ends at a stoplight opposite what used to be, years ago, a men's clothing store. It went out of business. Two successive retail establishments have occupied the space since 2008, one for women's hip hop (er, ho) fashion and one for men's hip hop (er, gangsta) fashion. A month ago, this storefront, which had been for rent for months, reopened as the Obama campaign headquarters. I have yet to see anyone going in or coming out. Meanwhile, the last of the real businesses on the main drag there, a furniture store, is conducting a sale to close out its inventory before moving to a safer location a mile out of town.

Just me? Maybe. But Lake has also checked in to say that in Super-Blue Connecticut he's seeing only aged Obama bumper stickers from 2008.

Biden whipped up the base? In their dreams. The dreams of those they really wanted to reach are already wrecked and fading into indifferent somnolence. The only whipped up ones are the same old hard lefties who live at the dumbest 10 percent pole of the Obama faithful.

If I'm right, this election is well and truly done and the electoral math of the network experts is very much like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. Romney will win so many states the electoral math is moot.

Why I'm offering no debate advice. Which you should appreciate even if you don't agree with my analysis.

Of course I can't resist offering advice now that you mention it. Here's what I recommend. Romney should cite the 60 percent who approved his 47 percent remark and point out that he's talking to that 60 percent, which is the victory margin he expects. Obama should play air guitar for 90 minutes. It will be a substantial improvement on his usual uh, uh, uh, uh, uh performance. Even the flyover citizens who "cling bitterly to their guns and religion" are able to appreciate a truly stellar air guitar.

Am I Right? Of course I am. As always.

For Lake.

Missing so much. But a look to look for.

WHO'S JOHNNY? What you don't have. The howl of a thermo-quad Carter carb opening up in the wilderness of everyday life. What you do have. Those lines. Even my non-motorhead wife concedes the lines are lovely. The takeaway. Everything will be fine. Here's the one that's as close as can be found to my own imprinting archetype:

Same blue, but more beat up and the top was black.

Forget the rocky cams. The thing that made everything work was smoothness. You have to imagine that. Smooth from five to one hundred and twenty-five with nothing but a howl in between.

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